Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.004816 0.005079 0.005349 0.005648 0.005970 0.006308 0.006689
2024-12-22 0.004322 0.004707 0.005121 0.005602 0.006146 0.006747 0.007462
2024-12-29 0.003969 0.004413 0.004906 0.005495 0.006186 0.006975 0.007954
2025-01-05 0.003708 0.004191 0.004739 0.005410 0.006219 0.007170 0.008389
2025-01-12 0.003548 0.004067 0.004668 0.005421 0.006350 0.007474 0.008958
2025-01-19 0.003302 0.003826 0.004441 0.005224 0.006209 0.007426 0.009072
2025-01-26 0.003195 0.003744 0.004397 0.005245 0.006332 0.007706 0.009614
2025-02-02 0.003161 0.003745 0.004453 0.005388 0.006613 0.008198 0.010463
2025-02-09 0.003033 0.003625 0.004349 0.005320 0.006612 0.008315 0.010803
2025-02-16 0.002939 0.003541 0.004287 0.005301 0.006672 0.008512 0.011262
2025-02-23 0.002843 0.003451 0.004212 0.005258 0.006695 0.008657 0.011650
2025-03-02 0.002802 0.003428 0.004223 0.005330 0.006875 0.009027 0.012389
2025-03-09 0.002726 0.003360 0.004173 0.005319 0.006942 0.009244 0.012920
2025-03-16 0.002643 0.003279 0.004102 0.005276 0.006962 0.009392 0.013356
2025-03-23 0.002544 0.003174 0.003995 0.005178 0.006896 0.009408 0.013578
2025-03-30 0.002459 0.003083 0.003905 0.005099 0.006854 0.009454 0.013851
2025-04-06 0.002410 0.003041 0.003879 0.005109 0.006941 0.009701 0.014469
2025-04-13 0.002297 0.002909 0.003723 0.004927 0.006734 0.009479 0.014276
2025-04-20 0.002259 0.002877 0.003707 0.004946 0.006830 0.009737 0.014926
2025-04-27 0.002261 0.002899 0.003767 0.005078 0.007104 0.010295 0.016146
2025-05-04 0.002199 0.002832 0.003697 0.005016 0.007071 0.010348 0.016458
2025-05-11 0.002154 0.002788 0.003659 0.004998 0.007108 0.010519 0.016997
2025-05-18 0.002106 0.002736 0.003608 0.004959 0.007109 0.010627 0.017424